On Temperature Records, Climate Models and the like

Recently, the New York Times – the paper which with great conceit considers itself the national paper of record – posted a blog: Not Even Close: 2012 Was Hottest Ever in the U.S.   It then went on to note the divergence of 2012’s U.S. temperature record from the average.  The Times blog was good enough to note that though U.S. records were broken (and I will mention reason for doubting even this claim below), the global record is safe as other parts of the globe experienced cooler than average temperature.

Then the Times article went on to detail other “evidence,” it believes indicates that 2012’s higher than average temperature was  not an anomaly but rather a sign of things to come if humans don’t repent for their ways and give up fossil fuels.

Problem is, the article’s initial claim may, in itself, be suspect.  However, even 2012 was unusually warm, problems with a variety of other claims offered as evidence of global warming should lead to greater rather than more skepticism concerning the human link to whatever warming is occurring.

As former Senate Staffer and current global warming gadfly Marc Morano notes, NOAA can only claim that 2012 is the warmest year on record through statistical tricks – including “adjusting “ raw data and adding data to the overall data set from stations that did not exist when the record first started being recorded.  Absent those illegitimate actions, the measured temperatures from the 1930s still match or exceed the measured temperatures from the 1990s and 2000s.

In addition, even if 2012 is actually the warmest single year on record, the “record,” by which I mean the history of actual temperature measurements is quite short both in terms of human history and even more so climatic and geologic history.  One year does not evidence of unusual or unnatural warming make, neither for that matter does multiple decades.  And that’s the real problem.  Much of the fear of warming centered around a temperature trend that began in the 1980s – less than a decade after we had come out of a three decade cooling trend that led many to fear and write about a coming ice age.  This warming trend, “that could only be caused by humans,” came to a halt in 1997-1998.  Thus the warming trend has lasted between 17 and 19 years.  The as yet unexplained problem for alarmists is that we have now experienced a flat temperature trend for as long as we experienced warming — 17 years of no warming.  While temperatures have not declined since the 1990s, neither have they continued to increase as physics and climate models predict they should, rather they have plateaued.

Worse, in many instances, it’s not just that neither physics nor climate models, fail to predict what’s happening, in some critical respects they predict that just the opposite should be occurring.  For instance, climate models have consistently indicated that rising temperatures should be especially severe in the Arctic regions – which according to estimates will account for the disproportionate amount of global average warming — and should be accompanied decreased ice pack.  This is just one more instance where model scenarios don’t match reality.  As reported by the Alaska Dispatch:

“Alaska is going rogue on climate change.

Defiant as ever, the state that gave rise to Sarah Palin is bucking the mainstream yet again: While global temperatures surge hotter and the ice-cap crumbles, the nation’s icebox is getting even icier.

That may not be news to Alaskans coping with another round of 50-below during the coldest winter in two decades, or to the mariners locked out of the Bering Sea this spring by record ice growth.

Then again, it might. The 49th state has long been labeled one of the fastest-warming spots on the planet. But that’s so 20th Century.

 In the first decade since 2000, the 49th state cooled 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit.  That’s a “large value for a decade,” the Alaska Climate Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks said in “The First Decade of the New Century: A Cooling Trend for Most of Alaska.”

The cooling is widespread — holding true for 19 of the 20 National Weather Service stations sprinkled from one corner of Alaska to the other, the paper notes.”

Those darned Alaskans, defying statists once again!  The nerve!

Comments (8)

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  1. Mulligan says:

    Climate change happens in fits and starts — apparently ELF and Al Gore are allowed to be off-center, but any variation in the temperature and the world ends.

  2. pat says:

    There has been so many adjustments to temperatures, and so many omissions of cold temperature readings that I am not convinced there is even a plateau. I believe 2010 and 2011 were in fact considerably colder than the running 10 year average. In both instances Euro-Asia had significantly colder winters. The central pacific region was cool. Likewise South America and Antarctica.

  3. Good show and please keep up the good fight by challenging emotion, ignorance, and lies with facts and the truth.

  4. Grammar fix says:

    Artic should read “arctic.” You may also want to add “for” after the word repent.

    • Gary Stone says:

      You know, there’s an old joke about the girl from Texas that was on a plane with a woman from the northeast. The Texas gal asked, “Where are y’all from?” The lady from the northeast sniffed and said, “I’m from a region where we don’t end a sentence with a preposition!”

      The Texas gal thought about this for a second, and replied, “Well, then where are y’all from, BITCH?”

  5. Gary Stone says:

    During a tour of the Jackson Hole region this past summer a young guide explained how a glacier had formed the valley. He also mentioned “global warming”. I asked him if he believed global warming was a threat and was caused by man, then what had happened to the glacier — where die it go before man caused all this warming. He didn’t have an answer for that.

  6. WaterPartnership says:

    If you want the real scientific facts about human caused planetary heating see the following:

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/16_more_years_of_global_warming.html

    NCPA is not a reliable source of information about global climatic disruption.

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