It seems that once again climate reality – you know the facts on the ground – is conspiring once again to confound climate modelers and those scientists and activists who continually argue that we should trust the models for our views on climate and climate policy.
NASA has announced that Antarctic sea ice has set a new record for maximum extent – just a little over a week after it broke the previous record. Indeed, though not a lot of people know it, global sea ice area is also above normal, and has been for much of the year.
Shocked, astounded, why haven’t you heard this from the mainstream mass media? Because it, once again, contradicts climate change dogma as represented by the climate models. As a recent paper points out, most climate models erroneously predict that Antarctic sea ice extent decreased over the past 30 years, which “differs markedly from that observed.” Antarctic sea ice has confounded the models by instead increasing over the satellite era. In fact, it is currently at a record extent that is more than 2 standard deviations above the 1979-2000 average. The authors lament, “The negative [Antarctic sea ice] trends in most of the model runs over 1979 – 2005 are a continuation of an earlier decline, suggesting that the processes responsible for the observed increase over the last 30 years are not being simulated correctly.”
Climate models don’t get the temperature rise (or current non-rise as the case it) right, they don’t get sea ice right, they don’t get hurricanes right, they don’t get glaciers right, but we are supposed to trust them when shaping policy that could impoverish much of the world.
As Howard Hayden points out, the IPCC’s stated confidence in the accuracy of its models and their proof of the human source of global warming has increased as the models’ divergence from the real temperature data has increased.
It’s a classic case of “are you going to believe what I tell you, or are you going to believe your lying eyes.”